AGP Executive Report

Greece Recovery Fund Push: Athens is racing to finish its “Greece 2.0” Recovery and Resilience plan, aiming for EU approval by late August (with disbursement of the last €11.3bn: €5.3bn grants and ~€6bn loans) and expecting the biggest final loan tranche in September. Poland Ukraine Support Limits: Warsaw’s SAFE funding for joint defence projects with Ukraine will be narrow, a former defence minister says, as Poland prioritises costly domestic modernisation. EU Online Safety Talks: Commissioner McGrath heads to Washington to coordinate EU-US work on online safety for children, with EU plans for phased restrictions on social media access after summer. Fashion Waste Rule: From 19 July 2026, large firms face a ban on destroying unsold clothing, pushing resale, reuse and remanufacturing instead. EU Carbon Market Fight: Brussels proposes ETS changes that slow the emissions cap and extend free allowances, triggering resistance from member states worried about competitiveness and costs. EU-GCC on Hormuz: The EU and GCC condemn Iran’s attacks and reaffirm freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Hungary Constitutional Shock: President Sulyok signs an amendment ending his own mandate early, while critics warn it weakens constitutional checks. UK Protest Noise Curbs: Police ban amplifiers near Downing Street on Andy Burnham’s first day, after past disruptions.

AI Competition & Big Tech Regulation: The European Commission is pressing Google to open Android access for rival AI assistants by July 2027 under the Digital Markets Act, while Apple warns of privacy and security risks. EU Border Friction: The new Entry/Exit System is still causing major passport-control delays for UK travellers, with Rome’s airport chief saying average processing time has nearly tripled. EU Climate & Industry: IATA warns the EU risks repeating a “historic error” by expanding the Emissions Trading System beyond Europe, arguing it could hurt competitiveness and slow decarbonisation. EU ETS/Power Costs: The ECB is likely to pause another rate hike while keeping September on the table, as renewed Middle East tensions and shipping risks cloud the inflation outlook. Circular Economy Enforcement: From 19 July, the EU bans large firms from destroying unsold fashion items, pushing resale, repair and recycling instead. Middle East Navigation: The EU and GCC condemn Iranian attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and reject any sovereignty claims or permit fees over international passage. Ukraine Pressure for Sanctions: Ukraine’s foreign minister urges the EU to unblock the 21st sanctions package and speed up air-defence deliveries after a major Kyiv attack. Hungary Institutions: Hungary’s president signs a constitutional amendment ending his own term early, intensifying debate over democratic safeguards. Cyprus Diplomacy: Cyprus officials say UN and EU involvement has created a “new political environment” for restarting talks. Tech/Travel Policy Spillover: EU rules on replaceable batteries won’t cover all small wearables, limiting consumer hopes for easier repairs.

Citizenship-by-Investment Crackdown: The EU has told five Eastern Caribbean states to end lucrative passport-for-cash schemes by 2028 or face visa-free travel losses to the Schengen area, with prime ministers planning a coordinated push to Brussels. Maritime Security: The EU and the Gulf Cooperation Council jointly rejected any attempt to control or restrict passage through the Strait of Hormuz, warning against permits or fees on international shipping. Middle East Tensions: Iran-Israel-US escalation is disrupting Gulf aviation and tourism, with airlines rerouting and adjusting schedules rather than shutting down operations. EU-Ukraine Enlargement Mechanics: Moldova and Ukraine’s accession talks are being separated by negotiation tracks, with progress no longer automatically linked—while Hungary blocks openings for Ukraine clusters. Rule-of-Law and Politics in Hungary: Hungary’s president signed an amendment ending his own term, a move tied to the post-Orbán reshaping of the political system that Brussels has long scrutinized. Digital and AI Governance: The EU ordered Google to open Android and share search data to rivals in the AI race, adding pressure to its platform enforcement agenda. Israel-Palestine: The EU condemned plans to expand West Bank settlements and reiterated non-recognition of Israeli sovereignty over occupied territories. EU Sanctions Deadlock: Greece raised objections to new Russia sanctions over potential damage to its LNG shipping interests, delaying unanimous approval.

EU Sanctions Gridlock: Greece is objecting to a new EU Russia sanctions package over fears it would hit a Greek LNG shipping firm, delaying the 21st round that needs unanimous backing. Russia-Ukraine Escalation: Russia launched missile strikes on Kyiv while the EU Commission chief was in Ukraine, underscoring how Brussels’ diplomacy is playing out amid battlefield pressure. EU Sanctions—Drones Tech: The EU added firms tied to Russian drone navigation and ballistic missile components to its sanctions list, aiming to choke the full production chain. Western Balkans Enlargement: Hungary blocked opening new EU accession clusters for Ukraine (and Moldova), stalling progress at a Council working meeting. EU Budget Relief via Antitrust: The Commission’s Google fine is set to plug a budget hole, with the bloc using the €4.6bn payment to ease fiscal pressure. AI & Big Tech Rules: The EU is pushing major changes forcing Google to open Android and share search access with rivals, intensifying the fight over AI competition. Border & Travel Tech: Gibraltar’s new post-fence setup is being rolled out alongside EES-related checks, with officials insisting airport issues are being resolved. Catalonia Amnesty: Spain’s amnesty row continues after the CJEU backed the law’s compatibility with EU rules, but arrest risks for Puigdemont remain. Ukraine Government Shake-up: Protests erupted after Zelensky dismissed Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, as a new cabinet takes shape. EU-India Trade Push: India and Finland discussed doubling trade by 2030 via an EU-India free trade deal. Armenia Food Access: Armenia approved fish export registration rules for EU TRACES, clearing the way for shipments. Gaza Reconstruction Pressure: MEPs grilled EU leaders over Gaza rebuilding costs and accountability for destruction.

Israel/Palestine: The EU again urged Israel to halt settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank, warning new outposts, land grabs, demolitions and evictions undermine the two-state solution after Israel approved funding for dozens of new settlements. Russia Sanctions & Arms Supply: EU-linked reporting says Russia is still building missiles with foreign components, including parts traced to multiple countries, with Belarus also implicated—raising pressure to choke supply chains. EU Borders Tech: Campaigners warn the EU’s entry-exit biometric system could cause “massive problems” for identical twins, as facial matching may treat siblings as the same person. Georgia Protests: Pro-European rallies in Georgia hit a 597th day, demanding political prisoners’ release and a return to a Euro-Atlantic course. EU Climate/Industry: The Commission unveiled an electrification push and an ETS overhaul aimed at boosting competitiveness, including a new industrial decarbonisation bank and a higher electrification target by 2040. Digital Markets: The EU ordered Google to open Android and search access to rivals for AI assistants under the DMA, intensifying the bloc’s tech enforcement. Poland Rule-of-Family Politics: Poland’s president vetoed bills expanding rights for same-sex couples via cohabitation contracts, citing constitutional protection of marriage.

EU Climate Policy: The Commission unveiled a major Emissions Trading System overhaul, easing the pace of CO2 cuts and softening permit supply rules while still aiming to hit the bloc’s 2040 net-emissions goal—an attempt to calm industry pressure while keeping the carbon price signal alive. Big Tech & Competition: Brussels moved to force Google to share Android and search access with rivals under the DMA/antitrust framework, with regulators also warning that AI rules must shift from design to enforcement. Rule of Law Watch: The EU’s annual report flags Czech shortcomings on conflict-of-interest and media ownership transparency. Rights at Home: Poland’s president vetoed civil partnerships for same-sex couples, while EU-linked debates on age verification and AI speech protections keep resurfacing. Ukraine & Enlargement: Zelenskyy reshuffled EU-facing roles, sending Taras Kachka to Brussels and naming Vsevolod Chentsov deputy PM for European integration. Foreign Policy & Sanctions: The EU approved new sanctions targeting six Russian military-industrial entities over strikes on Kyiv, as G7/EU ministers urged a halt to atrocities in Sudan’s El-Obeid. Energy & Industry: ETS reform is also driving fresh lobbying from member states and industry groups, including pressure to delay carbon fuel pricing.

EU-Ukraine Drone Deal: The EU and Ukraine have sealed a “drone deal” in Kyiv, pairing Ukrainian know-how with EU industrial scale and setting up joint production under a wider defence industrial partnership that could expand to anti-ballistic missiles by 2028. Ukraine Government Shake-up: Parliament has confirmed Sergii Koretskyi as Ukraine’s new prime minister as Zelensky pushes a wartime cabinet reshuffle, while protests continue over the earlier dismissal of defence minister Mykhailo Fedorov. EU Digital Markets Act vs Google: Brussels has ordered Google to open Android system-level access for rival AI assistants and to share search data with competitors starting in 2027, with Google warning of privacy and security risks. EU Farm Fraud Fallout (Greece): The EU prosecutor (EPPO) has charged four Greek MPs over alleged multimillion-euro CAP subsidy fraud, spotlighting weak oversight and political fallout. Child Safety Online: The Commission is moving toward EU-wide rules to restrict social media access for children under 13, after a child-safety panel flagged widespread psychosocial harm online. GSP+ Watch (Pakistan): The EU says Pakistan remains the top GSP+ beneficiary, but warns progress must translate into real rights improvements on the ground. EU Sanctions Deadlock: Member states have failed to agree a new Russia sanctions package after days of talks, with seafood and other measures still in limbo. Trade Diplomacy: Thailand and the EU say FTA talks are advancing toward a year-end deal, with remaining gaps focused on agriculture and raw materials.

EU-Ukraine Defence Push: Ursula von der Leyen announced an EU-Ukraine Defence Industrial Partnership to scale joint drone and counter-drone production, with another €1bn released for drones and plans to expand into missiles and air defence. Ukraine Politics at Home: Zelenskyy dismissed popular defence minister Mykhailo Fedorov in a reshuffle after protests erupted across Ukraine; Serhii Koretskyi (ex-Naftogaz CEO) was approved as prime minister. UK–Ukraine Continuity: Outgoing PM Keir Starmer vowed the UK-Ukraine “dynamic” won’t change after his successor takes over, as he made his final Kyiv visit. EU Courtroom Politics: The EU’s top court upheld Spain’s Catalan amnesty law as compatible with EU law, keeping Puigdemont’s return still pending. Tech Regulation: The EU ordered Google to share search data and open Android to rival AI firms, while a separate ruling backed tougher liability rules for online gambling content. Greece Under Scrutiny: EPPO indicted four Greek MPs and others over a multimillion-euro EU farm subsidy fraud scheme. EU Climate Fight: Ten member states urged the Commission to soften the ETS so emissions caps bite later, as the reform debate heats up. Energy Security Tensions: Greece resisted parts of a new Russia sanctions package over LNG shipping restrictions tied to a Greek-controlled operator.

EU-Ukraine Drone Push: Ursula von der Leyen and Volodymyr Zelensky signed a letter of intent for a strategic defense-industrial partnership, with €1bn earmarked for drones under the €90bn Ukraine support loan, while agreements also open EU defense funding access for Ukrainian firms and a €300m grant. Ukraine Politics at Home: Zelensky moved to reshuffle his cabinet, with Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov set to leave and Naftogaz CEO Sergii Koretskyi flagged as a likely next prime minister. Refugee Rules Tighten: The EU extended temporary protection for Ukrainians to March 2028, but new applicants who are military-age must prove compliance with Ukraine’s military obligations. Sanctions Deadlock: EU envoys again failed to agree on the 21st Russia sanctions package, extending the Russian oil price cap freeze to July 23 while talks continue. EU Budget Talks: The Council agreed its negotiating position for the 2027 draft budget, setting commitments at €191.88bn and payments at €202.07bn. India-EU Tech & Trade: The third India-EU Trade and Technology Council meeting in Brussels advanced cooperation on AI, semiconductors, clean energy and resilient supply chains, with investment protection talks aimed to wrap up before year-end. Sports Funding Row: Nine EU states urged the EU to cut funding for IOC-linked bodies after Russia’s Olympic Committee reinstatement, escalating pressure on EU sports governance. Sudan Civilians: G7 foreign ministers, with the EU’s top diplomat, called for immediate ceasefires and expanded UN-backed arms embargo coverage to protect civilians. Gibraltar Deal: The EU-UK agreement removed routine border checks between Gibraltar and Spain, easing movement for goods and workers.

EU Sanctions on Israel Settlements: Spain’s foreign minister José Manuel Albares says the EU is stalling on a trade ban for illegal West Bank settlements, arguing Brussels debates while Gaza and colonisation continue. EU Competition & AI: The Commission forced Meta to reopen WhatsApp access to ChatGPT across the EEA after a rare antitrust order, a signal that AI distribution “gatekeeping” may face tougher EU scrutiny. EUDR Implementation: The Commission has completed key steps to lock in the EU Deforestation Regulation, pushing it toward entry in December 2026—while industry still warns about practical burdens. Ukraine Defence Push: Von der Leyen visited Kyiv to launch an EU-wide “drone deal” and new defence-industry initiatives, as Ukraine also secures access to EU defence funding and R&D grants. Refugee Rules: EU ambassadors extended temporary protection for Ukrainians until 4 March 2028, but new applicants must comply with military obligations. EU Enlargement Momentum: Moldova, Ukraine, Montenegro and Albania advanced accession talks, with Cluster 6 opened for Ukraine and Moldova. Gibraltar Reset: Spain and Gibraltar lifted routine border checks under the EU-UK treaty, marking a new era of movement for the frontier. Carbon Price Fight: Ten EU states urged a rethink of a new transport-fuels carbon charge, warning it could derail ETS reform plans. EU Child Safety Online: The bloc moves toward age-based restrictions for minors’ social media access, with debate over whether bans can work.

Ukraine–France Defence Deal: Zelensky and Macron back a roadmap for Rafale jets plus SAMP/T NG air and missile defence, including licensed missile production in Ukraine under the EU-linked Ukraine Support Loan. Moldova’s EU Accession Push: Brussels opens Moldova’s Cluster 6 talks (External Relations), with officials calling it proof reforms are “delivering results,” alongside a €120m European Peace Facility package for defence and resilience. Gaza Recovery Funding: The EU ramps up support with a $1bn “Team Gaza” early-recovery initiative and pledges around €900m for reconstruction. Sanctions Politics—Sudan Gold & Israel Settlements: The EU bans Sudan gold imports to cut war financing, while an EU split blocks a trade ban on illegal Israeli settlements over the lack of member-state consensus. Cybersecurity Crackdown: The EU sanctions the “Stern” operator behind Trickbot, part of joint action with the US and UK targeting ransomware infrastructure. UK–EU Gibraltar Breakthrough: The EU and Britain formally sign the Gibraltar deal, removing routine border checks between Gibraltar and Spain. Middle East Energy Shock: Oil spikes as Hormuz tensions flare, then Trump reverses a planned 20% cargo toll amid renewed attacks. Security Coalitions in Flux: Poland plans the first “Coalition of the Willing” drills this fall, while Bulgaria withdraws from the group. EU Child Safety Online: EU-wide proposals push age-based limits on social media access for children under 13, with enforcement and compliance now the big question.

EU Enlargement Push: A “Super Tuesday” in Brussels opened or advanced accession tracks for Albania, Montenegro, Moldova and Ukraine, with Cluster 6 (External Relations) officially opened for Moldova and Ukraine’s talks also moving forward. Ukraine Defense Integration: The Commission signed cooperation agreements with Kyiv under EU defence industry programmes, while Ukraine’s air-defence needs remain urgent after fresh missile strikes. Gaza Reconstruction Funding: EU and partners pledged about $1bn for early Gaza recovery, with donors stressing reconstruction depends on security and access. Russia Sanctions Deadlock: EU capitals are scrambling to agree the 21st sanctions package before an oil-cap deadline, with disputes over items like fish, visas and Patriarch Kirill. Child Safety Online: Ursula von der Leyen backed age-appropriate social media limits, with proposals focusing on under-13s and “time-limited” access under supervision. Demography Pressure: The Commission warns EU population will peak in 2029 then decline, intensifying labour shortages and healthcare and long-term care burdens. Cyprus/Turkish Cypriots: TRNC rejected the EU appointment of Fitto as Cyprus envoy, demanding equal status in settlement talks. Trade & Industry: EU says it will keep using trade defence tools against China as the bloc’s deficit hits a record high, while Türkiye’s exports to the EU rose in H1.

Gaza Recovery Push: The European Commission launched the €883.6m “Team Gaza” early recovery initiative with 15 partners, aiming to restore water, sanitation, debris removal and key services, while also stressing the need for ceasefire conditions and Palestinian governance capacity. Settlements Trade Deadlock: EU foreign ministers backed a possible ban on imports from illegal Israeli settlements, but a procedural fight over whether it’s a trade measure or a foreign-policy sanction is stalling any decision. Meta Under DSA Pressure: The Commission issued preliminary findings that Facebook and Instagram’s “addictive” design—like infinite scroll and autoplay—may breach the Digital Services Act, raising the prospect of major fines. Russia Cyber Sanctions, With the UK: The EU and UK coordinated new sanctions targeting Russia’s cyber “ecosystem,” including GRU-linked actors and surveillance tech firms, as ambassadors were summoned over the campaign. Children’s Social Media Curbs: Ursula von der Leyen outlined phased age-based limits, starting with under-13s, using age verification and parental supervision as the EU’s next big online-safety push. Moldova Air Defence Funding: EU Council support of €120m for Moldova’s 2026 air-defence build-up followed renewed drone incursions. Armenia Hybrid-Threat Mission: The EU formally launched a partnership mission in Armenia to bolster resilience against cyber and information manipulation threats. AI Alarm From Economists: Nearly 200 economists and tech leaders warned that AI risks—especially job disruption—need urgent policy action.

EU-Russia Sanctions Gridlock: EU foreign ministers are still split on the 21st Russia package, with fish, ships and oil measures causing friction as the oil price cap deadline looms. Cyber Response: The EU (and UK) moved ahead with fresh sanctions targeting Russian-linked cyber spies and hackers over years of alleged sabotage and espionage, while France and Germany summoned Russian ambassadors. Moldova Security Boost: EU ministers approved a record €120m annual air-defence support package for Moldova, following a drone strike. Children Online Safety: Ursula von der Leyen backed age-appropriate social media limits, with under-13s facing supervised, limited use; experts warn “age bans” won’t work without safer platform design. Meta Under DSA Pressure: The Commission’s preliminary findings accuse Facebook/Instagram of breaching the Digital Services Act via “addictive” design like infinite scroll and autoplay. Passenger Rights Update: EU air passenger rules were approved, keeping delay compensation but tightening how carry-on baggage is handled in pricing and disclosure. Moldova Politics & Rights: Moldova’s ECHR reforms are progressing, but prison and justice changes still need speed; meanwhile, a German ambassador’s comments on Moldovan identity sparked diplomatic heat.

EU Foreign Policy: Ireland’s foreign minister Helen McEntee heads to Brussels for the first Foreign Affairs Council of the Irish EU Presidency, with ministers set to focus on Russia’s war on Ukraine, the Middle East and the Black Sea, and to discuss a new push on sanctions. Ukraine Politics: Volodymyr Zelensky announces a major government reshuffle, proposing Yulia Svyrydenko’s replacement as PM and changes in law-enforcement leadership, framed as preparation for winter and EU accession progress. Russia Sanctions: EU ambassadors fail to approve the 21st Russia sanctions package, pushing the decision to ministers on July 13 as member states argue over the oil cap and related measures. Middle East Trade: EU foreign ministers meet to discuss reducing trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank, building on the ICJ’s 2024 guidance and the bloc’s weak “differentiation” enforcement. EU Enlargement Watch: Serbia’s EU path is under fresh pressure after European Parliament warnings that Belgrade has become a “brake” on enlargement, with sanctions policy toward Russia cited as a key obstacle. Tech & Privacy: The EU orders Meta to change “addictive” Facebook and Instagram features after regulators say they breach EU rules, keeping the bloc’s fight over online design and surveillance front and centre. Road Safety Rule: From July 7, all new EU cars and vans must include a driver-facing infrared camera to detect distraction, part of the bloc’s Vision Zero push.

Meta DSA Clash: The Commission has moved its Digital Services Act probe into Meta’s “addictive” Instagram and Facebook design into a new phase, preliminarily finding breaches tied to infinite scroll, autoplay, push notifications and personalised feeds. EU Fiscal Discipline: Bulgaria has been placed under an excessive deficit procedure after joining the euro, with Sofia facing an October deadline and a path back toward the 3% limit. Moldova’s EU Track: President Maia Sandu has nominated businessman Vasile Tofan as prime minister, as Chisinau tries to steady reforms and keep accession momentum. EU Middle East Policy: EU foreign ministers will debate whether to back opposition to Israeli settlements with concrete trade measures. Road Safety Rule: From July 7, all new cars and vans sold in the EU must include driver-facing infrared cameras to warn against distraction. Cyprus Schengen: Cyprus is reported technically ready for Schengen, with the final call shifting to EU member-state politics. EU–US Tribute: EU leaders paid tribute to US Senator Lindsey Graham for his support on Ukraine and NATO. Climate & Disasters: A typhoon hit eastern China after evacuations of nearly 2 million people.